I don't believe Rep. Ron Paul has a snowballs chance in Los Angeles of winning the Republican Nomination for President. The Republican Party is still dominated by the Christian Right and now they've merged with the Tea Party or parts of them have merged. And even though Neoconservatives have lost influenced in the Republican Party, just look at the vote on the Debt Deal last week where 170 House Republicans voted for 1T$ in Defense Cuts. But they still have more influence then Classical Conservatives and libertarians in the Republican Party, this is how much the Republican Party has changed in just twenty years. And Iowa being the first Republican Caucus or Primary for 2012 and where the Christian Right still runs that party. Even with how the numbers look now with Rep. Paul currently running third, unless thousands of libertarians move and get registered to vote in Iowa and with the Republican Party in the next four months. I don't see how Rep. Paul beats Mitt Romney or Rep. Michelle Bachman in that race. But New Hampshire which still has the motto of "give me liberty or give me death", is still very friendly territory for libertarians, Classical Conservatives and liberals even. The Democratic Party does very well in New Hampshire, democrats who are actual liberals and not socialists. So if Rep. Paul were to do well in Iowa finish in a competitive third and then win New Hampshire, which is definitely Romney Territory. He would still be alive but the problem would be South Carolina which probably has more Christian Conservatives then Iowa which is saying something. I believe the Road Map to be the Republican Nominee for President in 2012, is like trying to swim up Niaggra Falls. There's too many Republican Primary's thats unfriendly to Classical Conservatives and libertarians. Which will also represent a problem for Mitt Romney who's more of a moderate then anything on Social Issues which is why he's been going out of his way to prove otherwise. But if Ron Paul were to take both Iowa and New Hampshire, I think he has a good shot in New Hampshire, you never know until all the delegates are counted.
Its all about Iowa and New Hampshire for Ron Paul to have any shot in hell in my opinion of winning the Republican Nomination. But his best bet to get his Campaign Message on the American Agenda is a third party run with the Libertarian Party or running as an independent. With his ability to raise money command National Media Attention and reach out to young libertarians.