In an election year where Senate Republicans should be running away with taking back the US Senate and make Minority Leader Mitch McConnell the next Leader. It looks like Mitt Romney will have to win the Presidency to see a Republican Senate in the next Congress. However House Republicans may hold on if President Obama is reelected, in a close election, if the President were to pull away, he'll take the House with him as well. Senate Democrats have managed to raise enough money to at least give their vulnerable incumbents who are up for reelection in 2012, the resources to be able to defend themselves. And thanks to the Tea Party, what should've been safe seats for Senate Republican to defend, have now become tossups, because the Tea Party has defeated incumbent Senate Republican in Republican Primaries. And have replaced them with Far Right candidates, like in Maine and in Indiana, Senator Olympia Snowe is not running for reelection, because of fears she would be challenged by the Tea Party. And Senator Dick Lugar lost the Republican Primary to a Tea Party candidate, both Senator Snowe and Senator Lugar are both popular in their States, not just with the Far Right.
As things look now the Presidential Election is essentially dead even at least in the polls but President Obama is closer to getting the 270 then Mitt Romney. Something like forty votes ahead if you look at the electoral maps but both are under 270 and need to win some more States to get there. Like Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania, President Obama is still fairly popular with the Democratic Party but they are no longer in love with him and if he can lock in his base. He would go a long way to securing a reelection and reevaluating his positions on things like the War on Drugs, Indefinite Detention and the Patriot Act, would help with that. And keep Liberals in his camp instead of voting for Gary Johnson, President Obama's Approval Rating is somewhere around 45%. If he gets that up o 50%, he gets reelected but the economy is holding him back with Independents and these Social Issues are holding him back with Liberals. And Progressives are still shocked and pissed that Barack Obama is not a Socialist.
I still believe that 2012 is 2004 as far as the incumbent being reelected, except that George W. Bush is Barack Obama, except the country might like Barack more. And John Kerry is Mitt Romney, the wannabe President who can never settle on a message and is afraid to be himself, so he keeps bringing these new characters instead. And if thats the case, a fairly close Presidential Election, with the President winning and Senate Democrats holding onto the Senate. And House Republicans holding the House with a very tight majority.