Ederik Schneider Online

Tuesday, March 5, 2013

Roll Call: Opinion: Stuart Rothenberg: Can President Obama Put the House In Play in 2014?: What House Democrats Need From The President

Rothenberg: Can Obama Put the House In Play in 2014? : Roll Call Politics

If I had to guess in whether current House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi is Speaker of the House in 2015. I would have to say no and not just because its way too early to call the House elections for 2014. But the economy is still weak with a Democratic President and issues like debt and deficit, as well as high. Unemployment and lack of economic growth are still the dominant issues in Washington right now. With a gridlocked divided Congress with both parties controlling a chamber of Congress. If I had to predict right now who will control the Senate in two years, I would have to say Senate Democrats. Still because they know how to fundraise, get out the vote, protect vulnerable incumbents, keep safe seats out of play and recruit. All things Senate Republicans seem to forgotten how to do since they've let the Christian-Right/Tea Party run their party. But that doesn't mean that John Boehner will be Speaker of the House in 2015 and Harry Reid will be Leader of the Senate in two years. The top two leaders in Congress but that its still too early to call these elections.

I wouldn't be surprise if Democrats win back control of the House in 2014. They need seventeen seats out of 435 and when they won back the House in 2006, they needed fifteen seats but they also didn't. Lose a single seat as well, something they weren't able to do in 2012, which is why they picked up eight when they could've probably of picked up fifteen or more seats. But the drive for seventeen has to start in their own caucus and avoiding primary challenges, protecting their vulnerable incumbents which. Takes money and people not retiring early and if they accomplish that, they then need to get to recruiting candidates. That can win in the targeted House districts they are going after. And that means recruiting Democrats who fit the district even if they are not completely inline with the House Democratic Caucus as a whole. Which is how they won back the House in 2006, recruiting Democrats who fit the district they are running in. Rather then the Democratic Party as a whole.

What House Democrats need from President Obama is a bit of a balancing act. They need his money, meaning him raising lots of it as he were running for reelection. And they need him to be popular and thats going to take a better economy with more Americans thinking the country is getting better and that. President Obama is at least partially responsible for that and then you have House Democratic candidates who run with the President. Which makes then look better and look better in the district and then make the case of why that person would be better for that district then the Republican incumbent. The trick is how do you do that and still have enough ammo to run on against Republicans. People you are going to have to probably work with to improve the economy.